Dallas Mavericks: Throwing Back the Big Fish

“Dallas can’t contend with Dirk and Chandler making max money, it doesn’t leave them with enough cap space to sign anyone else, at least not with the new CBA” they said.  The one and only year Tyson Chandler was in Dallas, the Mavs went on to win their one and only franchise championship.  At the end of that season, Chandler was an unrestricted free agent and rather than ponying up the money to resign him, the Mavs let him walk.  And walk he did, all the way to the Big Apple, where he got a 4 year, $55 million deal with the Knickerbockers.  In order to understand the rationale the Mavs used to justify letting him go, you need to understand a bit about the CBA (collective bargaining agreement) the teams were working under, both before Chandler became a free agent and after.

Now I’m no CBA expert, but I know enough to have an idea of what the Mavs were thinking.  The off season after the Mavs’ championship, the league and the players’ association had a nasty, drawn out disagreement of what their new multi-year deal, or CBA, should be.  Once they reached a decision, some things changed, and some stayed the same; but the most important details for our purposes are the changes in penalties for going over the cap limit.  The NBA has what is called a soft salary cap, which means that teams have a certain amount of money they can spend to put together their roster, and if they go over that number, they are charged penalties.  In contrast, there are leagues with hard salary caps, like the NFL, meaning you can’t go past a certain payroll number at all, and leagues with no salary cap, like MLB, where teams can spend as little or as much as they want.

Under the previous CBA, teams who were over the salary cap would pay a dollar to the league for every dollar they were over.  So if the league imposed a $100M cap, and a team had a $125M roster, the team would cut the league a check for $25M in penalties.  With the new CBA, the 1 to 1 ratio remained, but only up to a certain point, and then it would be $2 for every $1 over (2:1), and 3:1, 4:1, and so forth.  It made it a lot more expensive for teams to be over the cap, especially if they were significantly over the cap, like the Mavs had been for years.  Mark Cuban was never afraid to spend money, even if it included cap penalties, in order to put together what he felt like was a competitive team.  But the new agreement brought stiffer penalties, and Mark wasn’t as ready to venture into the waters of cap overages as he had been.  Also, the new CBA removed or limited roster perks, like the mid-level exception, for teams who are over the cap.  The mid-level exception is basically a roster spot, up to a certain amount, that doesn’t count against the salary cap.  The new rules made it much more difficult to be and stay competitive, never mind profitable, if you were over the cap.

So with these new rules in place, the Dallas front office felt it was the better decision for the team, long term, to not bring back a number of the players who had brought the first NBA championship to Dallas and stay “financially flexible” for the future.  Specifically, they wanted to have enough money to go after one of the 3 free agents who were about to be on the market around that time, in hopes that they would become the next cornerstone for the franchise: namely Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, and Deron Williams.  On the surface, it sounded like a good plan, and you can’t blame Cuban for not wanting to tie up all his money in a few players, but the problem is that in the NBA, generally speaking, you have to have an above average center in order to contend for a title–and those guys come at a premium.  Chandler was arguably the best center the Mavs had ever had, and after spending years and years handing out bad contracts trying to find a franchise center, it seemed they had found one in him.  A concern about Tyson, which has been the case for most of his career, is that he’s injury prone; although he managed to stay healthy for the year he was in Dallas.  It was a big risk for a guy who had a history of injuries and gave you around 10 pts/10 rebs a night.

So Dallas opted for this “financial flexibility”, and after swinging an missing on all 3 of those big free agents we mentioned before (Howard opted in for the last year of his contract with Orlando and eventually signed a multi-year deal with Houston, Paul re-upped with the Clippers, and Williams, a Dallas native, chose to stay with the New Jersey/Brooklyn Nets over coming to the Mavs), the team had to settle for lesser free agents in order to fill out their roster.  The post-Chandler years have gone like this: 2012 regular season 36-30 (shortened season due to lockout), eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in a sweep by OKC, 2013 regular season 41-41, missed playoffs for the first time in 13 years, and in this 2014 season, they sit at 32-23, 3rd in the Southwest division, and 8th overall in the West.  With all that in mind, do we as fans feel that the team has made the best use of the money they saved by not signing Chandler?  Was the financial freedom to make moves worth avoiding the risk they would have faced in resigning a proved, albeit oft-injured big man?  Let’s see what the numbers say.

Let’s compare Tyson’s numbers since he left the Mavs against  the guys the team signed with the money they would have spent on him.  We’ll compare games, minutes, points, and rebounds using a weighed average of the new players.  What I mean by this is, if Player A scored 20 pts per game in a season and was paid 60% of the available money, making his weighed points per game 20 x 60% = 12, and Player B scored 15 pts a game and collected the other 40%, making his weighed pts/game 15 x 40%= 6, their weighed average points per game would be 12 + 6= 18.  This will show us if the Mavs got a good bang for their buck with their new players.

During the 2011-12 season, Chandler  made $13.1M, and Dallas was able to sign Lamar Odom at $8.9M, Vince Carter at $3M, and Delonte West at $1.1M, leaving a surplus of $61,500.  Here’s how they performed.

2011-12	Chandler	Players
Games	62	51.9
Minutes	33.2	30.0
Points	11.3	7.6
Rebounds	9.9	3.3

Chandler went on to have a strong season that year, winning the Defensive Player of the Year award.  He also outperformed the collection of players the Mavs brought in to replace his production handedly.  He played 10 more games than them that year, gave his team 3 more minutes, scored almost 4 more pts a game, and most significantly, grabbed over 6 boards more per game.

The following season, TC raked in $13.6M, and Dallas upped Vince to $3.1M, and signed a trio of big men in Chris Kaman for $8M, Elton Brand at $2.1, and Bernard James for $470K.  They also paid West almost $1M although he didn’t play a single game that season, figures and stats which I will not use in the weighed average for simplicity and benevolence’s sake.

2012-13	Chandler	Players
Games	66	66.3
Minutes	32.8	21.7
Points	10.4	10.4
Rebounds	10.7	5.2

Chandler had just a strong a year his second season with the Knicks, although he didn’t repeat as DPOY.  Dallas’ players did a better job at earning their pay by increasing their games played, but were collectively on the court 10 mins less a game than Chandler.  That is in large part due to Chris Kaman’s inability to rebound well enough to stay on the court.  They did manage to match Tyson’s point output; but came up short in boards, averaging less than half of his rebounding stats.  At least they’re getting closer!

This season, 2013-14, Tyson is collecting $14.1M, while the Mavs are finishing VC’s contract with $3.2, giving James an additional $788K, and adding Monte Ellis for $8M, and Samuel Dalembert at $3.7M.  Now these additions total around $15.7M and exceed Chandler’s contract by about 11%, so I’m going to decrease the Mavs’ numbers by that percentage to give us a more accurate picture.

2013-14	Chandler	Players
Games	30	52.1
Minutes	28.9	28.2
Points	8.5	13.5
Rebounds	8.8	4.0

Fifty four games into the season, Tyson is having a hard time staying healthy; but when he does play, he’s averaging about 29 mins/9 pts/9 rebs, which is right at his career averages.  The Mavs’ big off season acquisition of Monte Ellis has bolstered the team’s offense, evidence by the pts numbers above; but rebounding by the replacement players is down from last season, in spite of adding, theoretically, the best defensive center they’ve had since Chandler in Dalembert.  Due to a compromised Tyson Chandler and a healthy set of Mavs players, the team has gotten the best return out of their investments this year over the last three.

Let’s look at one last chart, a standard average of the three we have above:

Average	Chandler	Players
Games	52.7	54.9
Minutes	31.6	25.9
Points	10.1	10.2
Rebounds	9.8	3.6

Over the last 2.5 seasons, the Mavs have gotten 2 more games a season, 6 less minutes a game, basically the same points, and a gawdy 6 rebounds less a game out of their players than they would have for the same money with Tyson Chandler.  Thus far, letting the defensive anchor of the 2010-11 has proven to be a bad decision by the numbers.  And the numbers weren’t even what Chandler was most lauded for on the team; it was intangibles like toughness, energy, and heart, which are also gone.  Winning is the great deodorant, and if the Mavs can get in the post season pull off an epic run in the playoffs, then the stink of this snafu will be all but forgotten.  But if they don’t, which is the more likely scenario, considering they’re hanging on the the last playoff spot in the West as I write this, they will have one more shot to make this right this off-season.  If, with the cap space they create by this summer, they can sign the next superstar of the franchise, a proven player that the team and the fans can rally around, then it may all be worth it.  However, if the season opener comes and goes, and the Dallas Mavericks look pretty much like they do now, with Dirk Nowitzki as the best player on the team, needing to carry the team on his back in order for them to have a hope at title contention, this may go down as the greatest mistake by the Mavs’ front office in the Cuban era.  Once that ball tips on opening night of the 2014-15 season, Tyson Chandler is on the last year of his contract, making him  a financial asset for the Knicks leading up to the trade deadline.  An asset that could have been Dallas’ if they had chosen to take the gamble and bring Chandler back.  Looking back over the last 3 years of Mavericks basketball, as yourself, would this team have had a better chance at a title with the guys they’ve brought in with their financial flexibility, or with a true franchise center?  I think we all know the answer to that question.

Can This Year’s Mavs Contend?

In Dallas, we’ve seen an NBA champion up close and personal in the not too distant past.  The franchise’s first championship came 3 years ago against LeBron James’ “upstart” Miami Heat.  I say upstart because, although they won the East and were in the finals, they were only a shadow of the basketball juggernaut they’ve become, winning back to back titles the last 2 seasons.  That Mavs team was an unlikely champion, as they were not the most talented team in the finals.  Miami’s Big 3 of James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh, along with a solid backup cast, looked much better on paper than Dallas’ one superstar in Dirk Nowitzki, a side-kick in Jason Terry, and a team of has-beens who were making one last grab at an elusive ring.  But what the Mavs lacked in talent, they made up for in chemistry and experience.  They showed they were the better TEAM, and playing team ball, won the whole thing.

Today’s Mavericks look much different than they did in those days; but not everything has changed.  Cuban still owns the team, Rick Carlisle is still the coach, and the Big German is still dropping bombs on people from all over the court.  As long as Dirk Nowitzki continues the Mavs’ best player, the makeup of that 2010 team is the blueprint for getting back to contention.  Let’s look at that championship roster and identify the key players and their roles:

Dirk Nowitzki PF
Jason Kidd PG
Jason Terry SG
Shawn Marion SF
Tyson Chandler C
JJ Barea PG
DeShawn Stevenson SG
Brendan Haywood C
Peja Stojakovic SF
Brian Cardinal PF
Corey Brewer SF
Ian Mahinmi C

There were 3 other players on the roster, but they were injured for the final series: Caron Butler, Dominique Jones, and Rodrigue Beaubois.

Dirk- The Star

Nowitzki was the unequivocal leader of this team.  He was the team’s best player and deserves most of the credit for the Larry O’Brien trophy which sits in Mark Cuban’s office today.  He was the go to man, the closer, and the workhorse.

Kidd- The General

Jason was the coach on the floor.  He knew what everyone was supposed to do, where they were supposed to be, and how to get them the ball where they liked it.  He also played excellent perimeter defense and helped spread the floor by shooting well from beyond the arc, opening things up for his teammates.

Terry- The Gunner

Jet was the second best offensive player on the team, and was often paired with Dirk in a two man game.  That means they were on the same side of the floor and played off of each other, daring defenders to come off of one to help guard the other, leaving with just enough space to get off a good shot.

Marion- The Lock Down Defender

Defensively, Marion’s assignment was always guarding the best player on the other team, and in the finals, that meant guarding LeBron James.  A task he did quite well.  On offense, he was the slasher—the guy who moves towards to basket without the basketball and takes a short-range shot or, better yet, gets a bucket at the rim.

Chandler- The Defensive Anchor

Perimeter defenders know they can play tight against their assignment if they have a big man behind them to protect the rim in the case their guy gets past them, and that’s what Dallas had in Tyson Chandler.  He was an above average shot blocker, rebounder, and would occasionally finish with authority around the basket.

Barea- The Spark Plug

Every successful team needs a change of pace guy, a player who comes in and alters the rhythm of the game, and that was JJ for the Mavs.  Barea was not exceptional at any aspect of the game, and he was a liability on the defensive end, but his kamikaze approach to attacking the basket gave the team a completely different look and a spark that Miami had a hard time containing.

Stevenson- The Enforcer

This role was played by Brian Cardinal as well, to a lesser extent.  Some believe that if he hadn’t twice stepped in front of Dwayne Wade to take a charge, the first resulting in a blocking foul and the second in a questionable charge call, injuring Wade and diminishing him for the rest of the series, the Mavs might not have won their title.  But it was DeShawn who got in a shoving match with Mario Chalmers, and LeBron James, and anyone else willing to get within arm’s length of him.  Every team needs a guy like Stevenson, who makes the other team think he’s crazy enough to hurt them physically, and not just on the box score.

The Rest of the Crew

The remainder of Dallas’ roster was made up of guys who played lesser roles, but played them well.  Brendan Haywood was a skilled big man with a soft touch around the rim.  Peja was another sharpshooter who could stretch the floor.  Corey Brewer was a hustler who went all out for loose balls and rebounds.  And Ian Mahinmi was a raw talent, who, when he was on, could be very disruptive on the court.

All of these pieces came together to form one of the best pure teams the NBA has seen since the days of the early 2000’s Pistons, who defeated a supremely more talented Lakers squad with smothering defense and crisp ball movement.  If the Mavs hope to win another championship anytime soon, they will need to come together as a team like this again.  But do they currently have the players to contend like they did in 2010?  Let’s compare the rosters to see if they have the necessary pieces.

The Star– As it was in 2010, Dirk Nowitzki is still the star of this team.  Unfortunately, Dirk is 3 years older now and has since undergone a significant knee surgery.  In the year of the championship, he averaged 25 pts and 7 rebs a game, while this year those stats are down to 23 pts and 6 boards.  Not a huge dropoff, but due to the dependence  the Mavs have on Dirk night in and night out, that small drop could be the difference between a deep run in the playoffs and one and done.  But that’s to be expected, and someone else has to pick up the slack.  The championship squad definitely had the better Dirk, but the 2013 version can still put the team on his back if need be.

The General–  Jason Kidd might be one of if not the greatest point guard to ever play in the league, so it is no small task replacing him.  This role has fallen to Jose Calderon, who is a heady player with good court vision, a respectable 3 pt shot, and one who rarely turns the ball over; but Jose falls significantly short as a defender.  He does not have the grit and savvy of a Jason Kidd, and bigger guards, of which there is abundance in the league, usually get the best of the Spaniard.  This is probably the position with the biggest drop off, but you have to expect that when you’re replacing a Hall of Famer.

The Gunner– The second best offensive weapon on the team is Monte Ellis.  Terry was a better spot up shooter and passer than Ellis, but Monte is definitely a more versatile player with an explosive first step and an impressive mid-range game.  He is more capable of creating his own shot than Jet was, and if he can develop the same kind of chemistry with Nowitzki as Terry, this could be one of the best guard-forward combos in the league.  I’ll give the advantage to Monte on this one.

The Lock Down Defender– This role still falls to Shawn Marion, although sometimes Vince Carter steps in if the circumstances dictate it.  Marion is still a strong defender, and Carter is no slouch, but no area disintegrates more as a player ages than defense.  This is because it is largely based on speed, reaction time, and energy—and those go little by little as you continue to add candles to what now has to be a lactose-free birthday cake.  No doubt, Marion 3 years ago is a better defender than he and Carter now collectively.

The Defensive Anchor– If there is one free agent I believed Cuban needed to bring back from the title team, it was Tyson Chandler.  Above average defensive centers are so hard to come by in the NBA that once you find one, you have to lock him down.  Since the Mavs let Chandler walk, they haven’t come anywhere close to title contention, and it’s no coincidence.  Mavs’ starting center Samuel Dalembert is a serviceable big man who can go for 20 and 10 on a given night; but he can also foul out midway through the 4^th quarter after 3 pts and 4 boards.  He’s highly inconsistent and not the kind of center players can count on to clean up their mistakes if they overplay a ball-handler on the perimeter.  Definite advantage 2010.

The Spark Plug– Looking at this year’s roster, no one guy has really established himself in this role, although most fans hope that it will be Devin Harris who seizes it.  Harris was drafted by Dallas as a rookie, and a lot of fans were sad to see him go as part of the trade that brought Jason Kidd to Dallas.  We now all know that it was the right decision, but the young Harris had been a part of a Mavs finals team before and looked like he had his best years ahead of him.  Now, Devin is a seasoned vet who, aside from an All Star selection in 2009, hasn’t had much success to speak of since he left Dallas.  Fans are hoping that he can find some of that old magic and be a 6^th man who throws defenses for a loop when he comes in the game.  But hope doesn’t win championships, and until I see it consistently on the court, I’m going to have to give Barea the nod here.

The Enforcer– Former nemesis and San Antonio Spur DeJuan Blair embraced this role in Dallas.  He is a hard-nosed, tough center, albeit undersized, who makes people think twice about strolling into the paint.  He’s a good pick-setter, and is not afraid to throw a cheap shot or two.  It’s hard to argue with the success of Stevenson, but I think Blair has the makings of a great tough guy.  I’m going to call this a wash.

The Rest of the Crew– With Jae Crowder, Brandan Wright, and Shane Larkin leading the pack, this year’s squad has a promising group of young talent, not to mention Ricky Ledo, Gal Mekel, and journeyman Wayne Ellington.  I revere the 2010 squad all the way down to the 15^th man, but I’d have to say, based on potential alone, this year’s deep backups are a notch above the former ones.

In comparing 8 roles (technically, 7 roles and 1 group of players) from the 2010 title team and the 2013-14 Mavs, five of those roles favor the championship team, two favor this year’s squad, and one is a tie.  Based on that, I’d have to say that our Mavs are a ways of from recreating the kind of chemistry and dynamic they had when they were at their best, and I don’t consider them contenders for this year’s crown.  If they do make it into the playoffs and they’re playing near full capacity, they’ll be the team no one wants to play in the first round, cause you never know what a hot team can do.  They have the talent to beat any team, anywhere from now until the post season, but they don’t have the pieces needed to win a best of 7 series.  Sorry Mavs fans; I recommend you just sit back and enjoy some entertaining basketball, and temper your expectations about what this team can accomplish.  And do like I do, go to You Tube and watch some of those old 2010-11 playoff games.  It’ll make you proud to be a MFFL all over again!