Cowboys Skip Leg Day in First Round

This is what the Cowboys look like after selecting Ezekiel Elliot with the 4th overall pick last night.  In weight training, much emphasis is placed on the importance of balance.  You want to devote near equal time to your upper body and lower body to develop strength and stability.  Not to mention actually look good.  (Not that I’m a picture of fitness, but at least I’m chunky everywhere).  When you rattle off the stars on the Dallas Cowboys, it probably goes something like this: Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Tyron Smith, Sean Lee…it takes at least 5 names before you mention a defensive player.  Tyrone Crawford, Orlando Scandrick, and Byron Jones are good players who could become more; but are they considered stars?  No.

That trend will continue as the Boys preferred the talented running back over a talented defensive back/safety in Jalen Ramsey last night.  Ezekiel Elliot is the best RB in this draft, no doubt.  He’s a heck of a football player with electric play-making ability.  He’s impressive and flashy.

Bulging biceps and ripped delts–beach muscles.  The look that catches the eye of everyone who walks by.  And if you put that much effort into your body, you want people to notice.  But the Cowboys already have a dependable running game.  With that O-Line, McFadden, and Morris, you could already tell they “work out.”  Now, they’re all swoll up top and scrawny in the legs.

Since the Boys are hoping their personnel decisions get them to the Superbowl, let’s take a look at the teams that made it there the last 5 years.

2012- Giants v. Patriots
2013- Ravens v. Niners
2014- Broncos v. Seahawks
2015- Patriots v. Seahawks
2016- Broncos v. Panthers

Now let’s rattle off some of their stars (winners in bold):

2012- Eli, Cruz, Osi, Tuck v. Brady, Welker, Gronk, Wilfork
2013- Lewis, Flacco, Reed, Rice v. Kaep, Gore, Bowman, Aldon Smith
2014- Peyton, Demaryius, Bailey, Moreno v. Sherman, Chancellor, Wilson, Lynch
2015- Brady, Gronk, Wilfork, Revis v. Sherman, Chancellor, Wilson, Lynch
2016- Miller, Peyton, Demaryius, Talib v. Cam, Kuechly, Norman, Olson

Is it split 50-50?  Not quite, but almost.  Interestingly enough, the winners have an even split.  I understand that this is an arbitrary list of stars; but I think it’s pretty close to what most people would name, and it illustrates my point.  You must have a balance.

Leg day is hard.  It takes more energy, oxygen, and blood-flow than arms day.  It hurts more the next morning.  The results aren’t as noticeable; but a solid base is key to strength and fitness.  There’s a reason they say “defense wins championships”–defense is the base of a winning team. The Cowboys are celebrating, carrying a crate of cold ones and mixers to the after-draft party, biceps and pecks rippling.  But when you look at the larger picture, it’s actually kind of sad.  And they’re not winning any awards with that look.

 

 

Dirk’s Hope For Another Ring Here is Anderson

I will be accused of being a schizophrenic fan; and it will be on good grounds.  Not too long ago, before the Mavs were .01 seconds from being swept by the Thunder in the first round, I wrote a blog on how they need to cut Dirk loose in order to accelerate the rebuilding process and allow him to play out his days with a legitimate contender.  Reviews were mixed.  I also criticized the Mavs for mortgaging the future by shipping away picks and young talent in short-sighted trades.  While watching Westbrook and Durant put the final nail in the 2016 coffin a few nights ago, I must say, I saw a glimmer of hope–not as much for the Mavs, but for Dirk.

Rick Carlisle is notorious for waiting too long to develop young talent.  He makes guys sit on the bench and watch when everyone thinks they should be taking reps.  It’s probably his biggest criticism as a coach.  Throughout the season, fans and media alike were clamoring to see more of Justin Anderson, the powerful, athletic wing we drafted in the first round last summer.  It wasn’t until Chandler Parsons went down for the season that Anderson got any real attention from his coach.  By the time Dallas clinched a playoff spot, he had solidified a role on the team (many argue it should have been larger), and he used this playoff series as a coming-out party to the rest of the NBA.  Catching oops, hitting 3’s, earning trips to the line, blocking shots, soaring for boards, doggedly defending offensive stars, diving head-first (elbow-first at times) into scrums for a loose ball, Justin showed everything you want to see from a developing baller.

If they hadn’t already, front office execs and coaches across the league took notice of Anderson and are now curious about what he can become.  For Mavs fans, he’s brought excitement and hope for the future of the franchise.  So, if you’re one who wants to ride it out with the Big German and try to build a contender around #41, it’s time to take trade calls for Justin.  I know…fellow MFFLs…you’re disgusted.  “He’s one of the only young, dynamic players we have.  He may be the future of the franchise.  How can you talk about trading him?!”  I don’t think we should trade him.  My thoughts on what the Mavs should do are well documented in my last post.  But if you’re going to acquire a polished veteran who can help Dirk make another push to the finals, the time is now (before next season starts), and Justin must be a part of the deal.  His stock has never been higher.

In the 09-10 season, the Mavs had a promising rookie named Rodrigue Beaubois.  He had point guard height, with the wing span of a small forward.  He had quicks, hops, and handles–potential in spades.  On March 27, 2010, Roddy burst on the scene with a 40 pt game against the Golden State Warriors.  Fans and media alike went wild!  Despite that performance, Avery Johnson, another rookie-averse coach, kept a tight leash on Roddy B, limiting his minutes and benching him at crucial points in ball games.  An underground movement dubbed “Free Roddy B” swelled among the the Mavs faithful lobbying for a larger role for the rook–with impressive t-shirt and merch sales, I must say.Even the king fanatic, Mark Cuban, fell in love with Beaubois’ upside.  So much so that when the Indiana Pacers offered their first round pick in 2010 for Beaubois, Cuban said “thanks but no thanks.”  That pick wound up being Paul George, who is now a perennial all-star.  Meanwhile, Roddy hasn’t played in the NBA since 2013.

Of course, hind-sight is 20/20, and we now know that was a terrible decision by the front office.  So what should the Mavs learn from this mistake?  Trust your coach, and don’t overvalue potential.  In basketball, there are three roles that are essential to a contender: the star player, the floor general, and the above-average big man.  Sometimes these overlap, meaning one player serves multiple roles, but all three must be represented.  The star player is self-explanatory.  Practically speaking, they’re the best player on their team.  LeBron, Steph Curry, Durant, Leonard, Dirk…the value of these players is undeniable.  The floor general is a facilitator, with great court vision, making split-second decisions that put his team in the best position to score.  He knows where his guys’ “spots” are and gets them the rock where they like it.  He runs the offense.  Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving, Rajon Rondo…these are floor generals on their squads.  Steph Curry and Damian Lilliard are examples of players filling both the floor general and star player roles.

Then there’s the above-average big man.  I would prefer to say “excellent”, or “superior”, but in this increasingly guard-driven league, above-average bigs are nearly as useful as their elite counterparts.  This guy’s job is to protect the rim, grab rebounds, and score from time to time.  Andre Drummond, Hassan Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan–great examples of this role.  In Boogie Cousins and Anthony Davis you again find the dual role.  When all three are represented, a team is ready to do work and chase a ring.  If you don’t have these in place, you either need to develop them or trade for them.  Back to Justin Anderson.  Can he fit into one of these roles?  He’s not tall enough to be a big, although he plays “big” for his height.  He is a decent ball-handler, and his passing will improve with time, but he doesn’t appear to have the skill-set necessary for a floor general.  So, can he be a star player?  He is obviously talented, able to finish at the rim with authority or hit from beyond the arc—but can he develop into a Paul George, James Harden, or even Klay Thompson?  I’m inclined to say “no.”  He could become an exceptional role player, like Jimmy Butler or C.J. McCollum; but I don’t think he has the talent to be anything beyond that.  And there’s nothing wrong with that.  Players like that are necessary to fill out the roster of a contender; but they’re readily available throughout the league.

If, in fact, Justin doesn’t fill an essential role on the team, and the front office is intent on keeping Dirk and chasing a title, Anderson has to be at the center of trade talks.  After high-flying for boards and buckets, frustrating Durant, and fronting Westbrook this last series, his star shines as bright as ever.  If he is traded, it needs to be in a deal that brings a floor general, an above-average big, or a potential star.  If he isn’t, and Dirk finishes his years in Dallas, get ready for more futility and frustration; just start designing the “Free Justin Anderson” gear now.

 

 

It’s Time for Dirk to Go

Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki (41) walks back up court after the Mavs turned the ball over to the San Antonio Spurs in the second half of the NBA Western Conference Quarterfinals Game 7 at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas, Sunday, May 4, 2014. (Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News)

My sports soul has been in pain for years now.  It’s been like watching the family dog’s health deteriorate–knowing the inevitable is coming .  It doesn’t see or hear as well as it used to, maybe a limp is developing, and it spends more time sleeping than awake.  Sure, there are still good moments from time to time; but you know, as a good owner, you’ll need to put it down soon while it still has some quality of life. Some dignity.  You’re dreading that day.

That day has come for the Dallas Mavericks and Dirk Nowitzki.  I’m writing this two days after the Mavs clinched their 15th playoff berth in 16 years.  A team that was picked by some pundits to finish near the bottom of the west is still in contention for the 5th spot in the conference.  Sounds like cause for celebration!  But really, it’s just one of those “good moments” I’m referring to. “But Dirk is averaging 19 pts and 7 boards a game, with no signs of slowing down.  He’s still the best player on his team.  What in the world are you talking about?!”   You’re absolutely right; but in my scenario, Dirk isn’t the aging dog, the “Dirk Championship Window in Dallas” is–and those are two very different things.

Nowitzki is the consummate pro, maintaining a level of fitness and focus into his late 30’s that is largely unseen in the league.  He is already a sure-fire hall-of-famer and #8 on the all-time scorers list.  At his current clip, he will surpass Wilt Chamberlain for the #5 spot in about 100 games.  That’s 1.25 seasons, not counting the playoffs.  Barring an injury, he will accomplish that before he retires–and Michael Jordan may not be safe at #4.  He is 27th this year in points per game, and with 32 teams in the league, that means he is a guaranteed top scorer on at least 6 of them.  So why can’t we win another championship with him?  Why must he go?

Because in the NBA, one top 32 player is not enough to win.  Even with two it’s no guarantee.  You must have multiple scoring options with the right pieces around them.  Jordan never won a ring without Pippen.  Kobe never hung a banner without Shaq or Pau.  LeBron James had no titles until he joined forces with Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh.  Even Dirk, in order to hoist the O’Brien 5 years ago, needed fellow hall-of-famer Jason Kidd and other key players.  When you look at that list of top 32, the best teams, at least those in the west, have multiple players listed.  Golden State has Curry and Thompson, San Antonio has Leonard and Aldridge, OKC has Durant and Westbrook.  If you’re going to the finals, you’ll have to go through at least two of those teams.  And of those six players, the oldest is Aldridge at 30–7 years younger that Dirk.  Dallas doesn’t even have another player in the top 50.

Truth is, no matter how legendary and transcendent Dirk remains in the twilight of his career, the front office has not surrounded him with the kind of talent that translates into deep playoff runs.  Dirk will be good enough to keep the Mavs playoff relevant as long as he laces them up; but even if they manage to scrape their way in, they’ll be eliminated by a real contender one or two rounds in.  It’s literally a no-win scenario.  Just good enough to make the playoffs, removing you from the lottery in the following draft, and not good enough to win a title.  Not rebuilding and not contending.  So how did Dallas find themselves in this situation?  The answer is simple: neglecting the draft.

The three best teams in the west, Golden State, San Antonio, and OKC, have built their teams around their first round draft picks.  All the guys named above, except Aldridge, were selected by their current team in the first round.  Aldridge, who came to SA as a free agent, was still a 1st round pick by Portland.  Heck, even Dirk was a first round pick (technically drafted by the Bucks, but the Mavs traded for him on draft day).  Since the 2011 championship, they have either traded their 1st round pick on draft night or not had one because it was included in another trade.  The exception is Justin Anderson, last year’s pick, who is currently a starter.  Rudy Fernandez, Lamar Odom, Rajon Rondo…all players for whom Dallas gave up at least a first round pick.  And why did they make those deals?  Why did they mortgage the future?  To keep the “Dirk Championship Window” open.

Well, that window is closed.  It slammed on Mark Cuban’s and Donnie Nelson’s fingers years ago.   All they have left is a loyal icon carrying the team and a group of veterans looking to get their careers back on track.  If Dirk wants a realistic shot at another ring before he retires, if the Mavericks want to get back to being a real contender, the best thing for everyone is to trade him to a current contender for undeveloped talent and future first rounders.  Dirk would have to sign off on it, because he has a no-trade clause in his contract.  The time is now, while he’s still a top 32 player.  It’s time for Mark Cuban to be a good owner, leave the fans with good memories, and put this dog down.  There’s a puppy out there looking for a good home, and everyone loves a puppy.